2007 NFL Division Ranking: #1 - AFC West
The toughest division in football is none other that the AFC West in my ranking system. It is also no coincidence that the best player in the NFL is also in this division. Three of these four teams get the challenge of facing LaDainian Tomlinson twice a year. That alone makes this one of the toughest divisions in the league. Besides that, this division has two serious super bowl contenders, a team that will be challenging, one of the best unknown defenses and perhaps the best overall team in the league.
The San Diego Chargers field one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. And they do the things well that you need to win. Namely, they run the ball and they stop the run. With Tomlinson, the Chargers have the premier running game in the league. Their offensive line generally dominates defenders and is built to run the ball. If Tomlinson needs a breather, in comes Michael Turner who could start for any other team in the league. On defense the Chargers run a 3-4 the way it should be run. It is extremely difficult to find a gap to run through in this defense. Their front seven is outstanding against the run and they have physical and aggressive corner backs that aren’t afraid to tackle. Back on offense, the passing game should continue to develop as well. While the passing game is not as stellar as the running game, it is efficient and effective. Last year, the weakness on defense was stopping the passing game. It is not that the Chargers can’t stop the pass, but their pass defense pales in comparison to their run defense. This is another issue that is being addressed and the pass defense looks to be better.
My biggest concern with the Chargers staying on top of the AFC has to do with their coaching change. Any time a change at coach occurs, there is a chance that the team will regress. I like Norv Turner as a person and as an offensive coordinator. I am absolutely not sold on him as a head coach. He has proven in past stints that his teams don’t seem cohesive and they don’t seem to have that physical edge. This is by far the best team that Norv has ever inherited. In fact it may be the best team in league history to go through a coaching change. Not only that, but a coach like Turner will do wonders to help Phillip Rivers take his game to the next level. If Norv Turner can keep this team headed in the right direction and field them as an aggressively physical team, I think the Chargers (not the Patriots and not the Colts) are the team to beat.
The Broncos will be a force to deal with in the AFC West. They are not going to concede anything to the Chargers and this should be a very competitive division race. Mike Shanahan has always fielded a competitive team in Denver. This season should be more of the same from the Broncos. Jay Cutler is firmly entrenched as the starter and will get all the reps in training camp. He was able to put up a rating of 88.5 in 5 games last year, but only won 2 of those 5 games. He has talented veteran receivers that can make plays for him, if he can get the ball in their hands. The strength of the Broncos remains their continually excellent running game. It seems that anyone could line up in the backfield for the Broncos and have a 1000 yard season. Unfortunately for the rest of this division, they don’t have just anyone at running back, they have Travis Henry. He averaged 4.5 yards last season behind a middle of the pack offensive line in Tennessee.
On defense, the Broncos had better be ready to defend the run. They face the Chargers twice and I have a feeling that the Chiefs are going to run the ball well too. In the latter part of the season, the run unit for the Broncos started to get gashed on a regular basis. Their pass defense is very good and most teams will not attack them through the air and find much success.
The Broncos will definitely make the play-offs, but they will have to do it as a wild card. With their solid defense and consistent running game, they are just right below the three current elite teams in the league which are San Diego, Indianapolis and New England.
Kansas City has some definite question marks going into this season, but I believe that Herm Edwards will be able to fill these holes and field a respectable team. Perhaps, the largest question mark is the offensive line. What was once the most dominant run blocking line is now suspect. The subsequent retirement of Roaf and Shields in consecutive seasons is going to be hard to replace. Kansas City has always had a dominant power game and they always seem to field an elite back. These elite backs have certainly been helped in the past by this offensive line. Larry Johnson has settled his off-season squabble and has the tools to be an elite running back. However, the gaps and holes that his line once opened for him, may not be quite as large as they used to be.
I think that the Chiefs made the right choice in letting Green go and starting Damon Huard at quarterback. Huard may not be the long term answer, but he is definitely the right choice for now. It boggles my mind when I hear how bad the Chiefs are going to be with Huard. In 10 games last season, he posted a quarterback rating of 98 while throwing 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception. That is pretty damn good if you ask me. Why is he not going to put up similar numbers this year?
On defense, the Chiefs are average to good. They need a decent showing from their offense in order to be effective. On the average last year, they held opponents to just under 300 yards and 20 points a contest. Not spectacular, but sufficient to get the job done. There was not a whole lot of action in the off-season for this defense either way. The Chiefs will field about the same defense, which is able to get the job done.
The Chiefs were in the playoffs last year and the only thing that is holding them back this year is an increasingly tough division. There are just not enough play-off spots in the top heavy AFC to allow a very good, but not elite team, into the play-offs.
Finally, we get to the Raiders, the laughing stock of the league last year. For several years, the Raiders have been spinning their wheels and not really going anywhere. The carousel of coaches continues this year with first time head coach Lane Kiffen. He inherits one of the worst offenses in the modern NFL era. To compound matters, they get the first overall pick in the draft and take a quarterback that may be questionable as an NFL quarterback, who then proceeds to hold out. As of this writing, Russell is still not signed. Whether this is the fault of the Raiders of Russell’s agent is not really the point. Rarely has a rookie quarterback hold out proven to be a wise decision and I think history will repeat itself here. One positive is the signing of Duante Culpepper. This move helps both the Raiders and Culpepper. He is a quarterback that can step in and play now. Plus his style of play seems to be pretty close to Russell’s style of play. If Russell ever does sign, I think Duante is a great mentor in this situation.
The defense in Oakland can keep this team in games. It is a young and aggressive defense. In an otherwise forgettable 2006 season, this defense, notably the pass defense, was better than good. I think this defense will be even better in 2007. If the offense can produce some first downs from now to then, the Raiders are going to be able to hang with most teams. The 2007 Raiders should not be confused for a play-off team, but they are definitely going to win more than 2 games this season.
In summary, I see this as the toughest division in the toughest conference in the NFL. San Diego is my pre-season superbowl pick. I like the fact that they have to fight there way through this division on the way to the playoffs. They will enter the play-offs hardened and ready to face any challenge. The Broncos would be a threat to win about any other division in the league. I do think they get a play-off spot and would not be a fun team to play in the play-offs. The Chiefs would have a wild-card shot in any NFC division. In the ultra-competitive AFC, I don’t think they will make it. And finally the Raiders will not challenge for the division or a wild card spot, but they are going to make teams bring their A game in order to beat them.
